Informe de valoración comparativo
Hoy, 26 de julio de 2007, Barón de Ley ha publicado el primer informe semestral del ejercicio 2007. Recientemente esta empresa, cotizada en el Mercado continuo, ha sido noticia por la entrada, con un 5 % del capital, de fondos de inversión gestionados por Bestinver. Es de sobras conocida la capacidad y el estilo de inversión de esta gestora, caracterizándose por una inversión de ortodoxo estilo Value. Salvo apuestas arriesgadas y minoritarias, entran en el capital de las empresas cuando detectan, después de un concienzudo análisis, que su cotización presenta un solvente margen de seguridad respecto de la valoración objetiva de la misma, no dudando en realizar cuantas auditorías y entrevistas con los gestores sean necesarias para una correcta valoración.
No queda otra que admitir que la actual cotización de Barón de Ley mantiene un cierto descuento respecto de su valoración objetiva. Personalmente creo que este descuento es menor de lo previsto, y achaco más la inversión de Bestinver a tratarse de una empresa de claro perfil defensivo. Podríamos suponer que un 10-15 % de margen, en este caso, ya sería razonable.
Pero la intención de este informe no es analizar Barón de Ley, sinó BODEGAS BILBAINAS, empresa cotizada en los Corros de la Bolsa de Bilbao. Y lo haremos, estableciendo una comparación entre la cotización de una y otra, a partir de sus parámetros objetivos. Normalmente las empresas que cotizan en corros, lo hacen con un mayor descuento que sus homólogas del continuo, entre otras razones, por su menor liquidez. Pero frecuentemente solo por ser más desconocidas.
En primer lugar, hay que establecer que Barón de Ley es una empresa que dispone de un Grupo Consolidado, frente a BODEGAS BILBAINAS, que es una empresa cotizada, perteneciente a un Grupo de Consolidación (el Grupo Codorniu, principalísimo y mayoritario accionista). Si bien Barón y BODEGAS, como empresas individuales son prácticamente idénticas, la comparación es necesario hacerla entre el Grupo Consolidado Barón frente a BODEGAS.
Los principales parámetros que rescato son los siguientes:
Barón de Ley (Grupo consolidado):
Cifra Negocios+Producción: 43,84 M € (1S07) 40,40 M € (1S06) +8,50 %
Beneficio neto: 9,05 M € 8,43 M € +6,97 %
Patrimonio neto: 184,91 M € 171,64 M € +7,73 %
Total Activo: 221,08 M € 213,65 M € +3,48 %
Personal: 184 174 +5,75 %
BODEGAS BILBAINAS (Individual)
Cifra Negocios+Producción: 14,21 M € (1S07) 10,55 M € (1S06) +34,69 %
Beneficio neto: 1,63 M € 1,04 M € +56,73 %
Fondos propios: 34,50 M € 32,70 M € +5,50 %
Total Activo: 45,54 M € 42,04 M € +8,32 %
Personal 72 74 -2,70 %
Barón de Ley tiene 7,15 M de acciones, y capitaliza por unos 365 M de euros.
BODEGAS BILBAINAS tiene 2,79 M de acciones, y capitaliza por unos 26 M de euros.
Un repaso rápido nos indica que:
Barón de Ley cotiza a 2 veces su Patrimonio Neto contable.
Barón de Ley cotiza a 40 veces su Beneficio Neto.
Barón de Ley cotiza a 8,5 veces su Cifra de Negocios.
BODEGAS BILBAINAS cotiza a 0,8 veces sus Fondos Propios.
BODEGAS BILBAINAS cotiza a 16 veces su Beneficio Neto.
BODEGAS BILBAINAS cotiza a 1,8 veces su Cifra de Negocios.
También es fácil observar que Barón de Ley, como Grupo, es equivalente a unas 5,5 veces a BODEGAS BILBAINAS. Ambas empresas están similarmente saneadas y capitalizadas, ofrecen beneficios y rentabilidades similares, disponen de buenas marcas y solventes accionistas, y por tanto, sus cotizaciones deberían, salvados los parámetros diferenciales, ser razonablemente similares.
La capitalización razonable de la empresa, atendiendo a los diferentes parámetros, oscilaría entre 65 y 121 M de euros.
Por prudencia, optamos por dar como valor razonable el inferior, 65 M de euros, que surge de comparar capitalización respecto de Beneficio Neto, pues finalmente una empresa lo que pretende es generar beneficio.
La estimación superior (121 M de €), la obtenemos de comparar por Cifra de Negocios+Producción. Disponiendo ambas empresas de una respetable cuota de mercado, y marcas prestigiosas y bien posicionadas, no es aventurado usar este parámetro, pero se escapa ya de lo prudente y objetivo.
Según dicha comparación, el precio objetivo por acción de BODEGAS BILBAINAS asciende a 23,5 euros por acción. Si le restamos un 20 % suplementario, por la baja liquidez del valor, aun nos sale un precio objetivo de 18,80 euros por acción, valor que representa un potencial de más de un 100 % respecto de su última cotización conocida, de 9,30 euros.
Para el que quiera invertir con tranquilidad a largo plazo, sabiendo que dispone de un potencial latente enorme, y con la satisfacción de poder disfrutar de su propia producción comprando en el supermercado una botella de “su” bodega, además de invertir en una empresa sostenible, la recomendación es compra sin dudar.
Jesús Díez, julio 2007
Nota: El articulista declara tener acciones de BODEGAS BILBAINAS
Comentarios
a ver si puedes vender,
a ver si puedes vender, suerte
Los corros puede ser un
Los corros puede ser un mercado tan difícil de entrar como de salir.
Salvo alguna muy señalada excepción, para no pillarse, hay que entrar con la mentalidad de mantener a largo, y que el tiempo ponga a la empresa en su lugar. Y este tiempo, en corros, pueden ser perfectamente AÑOS.
Por eso es muy importante valorar lo mejor posible la empresa que "compras", y diversificar bien. Es suicida, financieramente hablando, poner demasiado capital en empresas casi no-cotizadas.
Mi parte de cartera de corros actualmente no supera el 5 %. Lo máximo que he llegado es a un 20 %.
Pues no es esa la visión
Pues no es esa la visión que tengo yo de B. Bilbainas , no intenté vender eh ,pero cuando compré me pase un mes largo para conseguir el papel que yo quería, al final aburrido quite la orden y me quede con menor cantidad que la deseada ,conclusión ( en aquellos momentos, claro ) no había papel y si dinero, pasa lo mismo en Minersa, pero si, lo que dice es muy importante en estas empresas no se puede tener mucho dinero metido
Resultados BODEGAS BILBAINAS
Resultados BODEGAS BILBAINAS en la CNMV
Lunes, 3 de septiembre de 2007.
Presentados los resultados 2S2007, en este caso corresponden a Cierre de Ejercicio. Resumen rápido:
Activo inmovilizado: Crecimiento +14 %
Valor total Producción: Crecimiento +17 %
Resultado Bruto del Negocio: Crecimiento +34 %
Resultado Neto (después de IS): Crecimiento +46 %
Mi apuesta personal es una propuesta de dividendo de 0,15 euros por acción. Próximamente saldrá la convocatoria de la Junta.
Un informe muy interesante,
Un informe muy interesante, el incremento es muy alto.
Jogos | Jocuri | Játékok | Juegos
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